The COVID-19 pandemic has brought almost all countries to negative economic growth, including Indonesia. After experiencing a long period of downturn, in 2021, economic conditions showed improvement. The Indonesian economy in 2021 again grew positively by 3.69% after previously experiencing a decline of 2.1% (2020). The optimism of the pandemic has turned into an endemic, making the Indonesian economy in 2022 quite prospective. Indonesia’s G20 presidency is also a multiplier factor in optimism for Indonesia’s economic recovery.

However, this optimism was overshadowed by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which could result in lower economic recovery than initially estimated. Russia is the main oil and gas provider for the European Union (EU), so the conflict between Russia and Ukraine resulted in price increases for several main commodities. However, in general Russia and Ukraine are not Indonesia’s main trading partners, so it is estimated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may have an indirect impact on the Indonesian economy both nationally/generally and sectoral.

Responding to concerns about the impact on the Indonesian economy, DEFINIT, as an institution with experience in providing early warning systems, is actively involved in conducting general assessments and projecting Indonesia’s economic conditions through the preparation of sectoral and expenditure economic growth models. Linear with these efforts, DEFINIT has expertise in performing data analysis using macro and micro data.

The results of the assessment produced in this project are expected to be a basis for considering policies by the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs and an update on Indonesia’s economic conditions which will be presented in the Economic Outlook Book which is published regularly by the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs.